Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the crucial battleground state of Michigan, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. The poll, taken Sept. 16-19, shows Democratic candidate Harris up three points over Republican Trump, 48% to 45%. The poll was conducted after the first and possibly only debate between Harris and Trump, and after a second assassination attempt against Trump on Sept. 15.
Six third-party candidates will also appear on the Michigan ballot, including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign last month and endorsed Trump. According to David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, the behavior of third-party voters could make the difference if the margin between the two major party candidates tightens.
Kennedy has sought to remove his name from the ballot in several states since endorsing Trump, including in Michigan. However, he is fighting to place his name on the ballot in New York, where he was disqualified, in an attempt to pull support from Harris in the reliably blue state. The Michigan Secretary of State's office has said minor party candidates cannot withdraw from the race once they have gained ballot access.
In the run-up to the election, both major party candidates have been prioritizing battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that Harris leads Trump by three points, 48% to 45%, in bellwether Kent County, Michigan, which is home to Grand Rapids and surrounding suburbs.
According to the poll, there is a significant gender gap between the major party candidates. Harris holds a lead among women with 56% to Trump's 37% support, while men prefer Trump over Harris by a margin of 54% to 39%. Trump holds a slight lead with independent voters, 42% to 41%.
In recent campaign events, Harris has been highlighting the contrast between her and Trump on issues like immigration policy, abortion rights, health care, and taxes. During an address to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, she issued a warning regarding the former president's mass deportation plan.
In an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists, Harris noted the "profound responsibility" that comes with a public platform. She has managed to draw support from a broad spectrum, including former members of Congress, defense secretaries, CIA directors, and even some top Republicans who have publicly endorsed her, citing concerns over Trump's approach to national security.
Harris' coalition now spans from the right edge of the GOP to the center and left of the Democratic Party to cultural figures. However, this does not imply an agreement on all policies, underlining the diverse nature of the coalition.
In other developments, the Federal Reserve recently announced it was lowering its key interest rate by half a percentage point. This could potentially impact the economic landscape as early voting kicks off.